PSTX Seal

Texas Population Changes and the 2010 Census

Dr. Murdock: It's a pleasure to be here back in Texas. What I want to do is to talk about U.S. and Texas demographics.  I'm supposed to talk primarily about Texas demographics, but I think we've got to talk about how they fit together in terms of factors that will likely impact architecture.  That includes not only the number of people but the socioeconomic characteristics of people.

Now, you'll have to excuse me because I have a tendency towards the end of my presentations of getting just a little bit preachy.  But if I do so, as many other demographers in here know, I have a right to do so.  That's not arrogance, that's because I am a demographer.  Probably everyone in here knows that demography is a divine calling.  We know it is because there's a book of Numbers in the Bible and it's all about censuses.  So you can see that we're correct about that.

But what I want to talk about ‑ and I'll probably only get through several of these, not all of these ‑are the rates and sources of population growth in Texas and the United States.  I want to talk about the increase in the non-Anglo population which I argue is the most important factor impacting Texas and the nation.  In fact, many of you know that I have for years said that Texas is a preview of things to come in the country. If anything is more logical, more obviously now than it was ten years ago it is this very factor.  Recent projections done by the Census Bureau indicates an increasing tendency for the U.S. to look in the future like Texas does today.  And we'll talk about the aging of the population, something that's increasingly difficult for some of us to talk about here.  And we'll talk about socioeconomic development.  Then if we have a little bit of time I've got to plug the 2010 census and the need we have for people like you to help us.

Well, let's start off by looking at population change.  I want to begin by apologizing for some slides that will look just like this.  I have a friend who says What I love about you, Murdock, you put about 600 numbers up in front of a bunch of people and you say, 'As you can plainly see'.

 

4-population change 1850-2007

Well, this is one of my as-you-can-plainly-see slides.  What I want you to see here is that in every decade since Texas first allowed the U.S. to join it, we have grown more rapidly than the country as a whole.  And that growth has continued to be there at extensive paces even through the most present period of time for which we have data, which is 2007.

 

I want you to note that for the country as a whole there has been a different pattern.  That red line there is the patterns of growth in the U.S.  And in general, those patterns of growth have been down ‑ not down compared to many other developed countries of the world, but certainly down over time from the 30 percent range per decade, for example, down into the teens and below in some of our most recent decades. You know, populations grow from one of two mechanisms, natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, and as a result of immigration.  And if you're talking about Texas, that could be as well migration, meaning migration from other states.  But if you're looking at the country as a whole, we're talking about immigration.

5-population change 1700-2007

I want you to note that for the country as a whole there has been a different pattern.  That red line there is the patterns of growth in the U.S.  And in general, those patterns of growth have been down ‑ not down compared to many other developed countries of the world, but certainly down over time from the 30 percent range per decade, for example, down into the teens and below in some of our most recent decades. You know, populations grow from one of two mechanisms, natural increase, the excess of births over deaths, and as a result of immigration.  And if you're talking about Texas, that could be as well migration, meaning migration from other states.  But if you're looking at the country as a whole, we're talking about immigration.

7-immigration 1820-2006

Here, the red represents immigration.  I want you to note the period of the greatest  immigration in percentage terms was 1900 to 1910.  That's that period when we have all those Ellis Island kinds of photos and those kind of stories.  But what's important to note is since the 1940s what we have seen is a substantial increase in immigration for a number of decades.  That has some very real meanings in terms of the second factor I'm going to talk about, diversity. The blue line up here represents the proportion of our migrants that were from Europe.  Many of us think that is, in fact, the base of America's population.  But you'll see that starting in the '60s and '70s, what we've seen is that the majority of our immigration has been from Latin America. Our immigration has been from Latin America and has been from Asia.  These are the areas of growth in our immigrant culture.  And these are very important because they represent not only changes in heritage in some ways, but they represent changes in lots of factors including in some cases socioeconomic factors.

Have they been important in Texas?  Well, this simply shows some of our data broken down into four parts of change now.  When you look at a state you have both domestic migration, meaning migration from other states and you have international migration, meaning migration from other countries.

8-population change 1990-2000  2000-2007

What I want you to notice as you look at Texas is the bottom chart, 2000-2007 is not a full decade like the one above it.  So you kind of have to increase it.  But one of the things you will note is that from 2000 to 2007 already immigration to Texas is greater than it was for the whole decade of the 1990s. Immigration is an important factor in both Texas and we'll see in U.S. population growth, as well.

Well, let's look a bit at Texas population growth because it has been phenomenal.  We'll go through these fairly quickly.  This is where the state's ranked in terms of size which is of course the second largest in 2000 and 2007.

10-ten largest states 2000

When you look at growth you see some interesting patterns.  In the 1990s we were second to California, in terms of total growth, having increased by about 3.9 million people.  If you look at 2000-2007 you see that we have increased faster even than California.  You'll notice that California is substantially larger in total population.  So in many ways Texas is the fastest growing state in the entire country.  When you look at it in percentage terms, of course, you'll see a little bit different picture.  But you can see that Texas was about eighth-fastest growing in the 1990s.  It is, as you can see up there today, about the sixth-fastest growing state, even in percentage terms.  So our growth is very, very rapid indeed.

16-percent change in population 2000-2007

It is part of a larger structure and larger issues ‑‑set of issues.  If you look at the growth in the United States there are two regions of the country that are growing most rapidly, the South and the West.  The Northeast and the Midwest in many cases are having great difficulty in retaining population bases. That dark purple and darker color yet are those parts of the country that are growing fast ‑ fastest. The regions of the West and the South are, in fact, the regions of the country that are growing.

20-population change tx counties 2000-2006

What about Texas?  The dark blue up here represents the fastest-growing parts of Texas.  There are really four parts of Texas that for the last 28 or so years have been the fastest growing in the country.  Those are the Dallas/Fort Worth area, the Houston/Galveston area, the San Antonio to Austin area ‑ I know there's some people in Austin that think it's the Austin/San Antonio corridor but I checked with everybody here in San Antonio and they've assured me it's the San Antonio to Austin corridor - and the area along the Texas and Mexico border basically from Laredo down to Brownsville and McAllen.  As I said, for nearly 30 years now these have been the fastest growing parts of the State of Texas.

The interesting thing to note, however, is that the number of counties that are declining while we are growing has actually increased over the last few years in terms of pure numbers of counties.  If you went back to 2000 we had about 68 counties that were losing population.  When you look at the most recent data you see about 100 counties that are losing population today.  So not only is our growth increasing, it is increasingly concentrated in those large metropolitan centers of the state.

Well, let's talk a little bit about diversification.  I get a lot of flack when I go around the country and I talk about Texas and the U.S. because I always show a lot of these comparisons. But I try to explain to my people from other states that the only reason I show these kinds of charts is because we in Texas like to compare ourselves to other nations.

21-population  ethnicity change 1980  1990

Just take a minute to look at this.  Notice, for example, in Texas, or if you look in the U.S. the slowest population growth is in Anglo or non-Hispanic white populations.  In the United States it's only 4 percent ‑ now this is going back to the '80s.  And why do I show that far back?  Because this is not a new trend.  This is an ongoing, long-term trend.  If we look at the 1990s what do we see?  Well, if you look at the country as a whole, for example, the growth of the Anglo population went way up from 4.2 to 4.8 percent.  That still needs a doubling time of 150 years plus if you look at the doubling rate.  In Texas the Anglo population growth rate actually went down from about 10 to about 7.8 percent.

23-population  ethnicity change 2000  2007

Looking at the most recent period of time ‑ now, again, remember to make this comparable to the earlier years you've got to add about another third to it - but you can see that still the growth is much less in the Anglo population than in other population groups.  The growth is really greatest in Texas in the Hispanic population.  But that is not a Texas-unique phenomena, as we'll see in just a few minutes.

Similarly, when you look at the growth, for example, in the United States you see that increase that has occurred of about 20 million people from 2000-2007.  About half of that growth is due to the Hispanic population that represents 15 percent of the total U.S. population.  In fact, this shows Hispanic population growth by various states.  You can see that it's a very pervasive pattern.

25-hispanic in 2000  2007 top 20 states

Now look there at Georgia.  Georgia in 1990 had about 100,000 Hispanics.  By 2000 you can see it had 430-some thousand.  And by 2007 you see 741,000 Hispanics. You also see large numbers in North Carolina and in Texas again, of course, you can see the tremendous growth that we have had in the Hispanic population. Well, why is this?  What colleagues of mine, Ken Johnson and Dan Lichter, have done some work recently showing the change in population growth of the United States from 2000 to 2005.  Remember at the national level the Hispanic population is 15 percent of the total population.  But from 2000 to 2005 they accounted for 49 percent of total U.S. population growth, they accounted for 53 percent of immigrants and 47 percent of natural increase, that excess of births over deaths.

26-birth-death ratios hispanic 2000-2006

And this gives you some idea why.  This is birth-to-death ratio.  If you look at the green up there that's basically, the non-Hispanic population of the United States, all other groups except Hispanics.  And you can see that the ratio of births to deaths is about 1.3, 1.4 births per death.  The ratio for Hispanics is eight to one.  For Texas it's about seven to one. Now, some of that is higher birth rate, but a large part of it is also a very young age structure.  So you're seeing a combination of factors that are leading to this very rapid population growth.

Let's talk about age for a few minutes.  As I said, this is something I find increasingly difficult to talk about.  But there are two factors that are taking place in the United States that are very important.  One of those is the aging of the Baby Boomers, those people born between 1946 and 1964.  They are basically 25 percent of the U.S. and Texas population and in a very real sense they are a force for the future that we've all heard more about probably than we want to. You can see there in Texas and in the U.S. similar kinds of patterns as that age group ‑ or that group has aged forward.  I like to say that if you look at the 45 to 54 age group up there you see that Baby Boom, the cutting edge or the forward edge of that Baby Boom population and you see it moving along.  Well, this is 2000-2007.  Notice that most of them moved into that next stage group showing up there.  And they'll continue to go until we have about one in every five Americans that is 65 years of age or older.

30-tx populaiton by age  ethnicity 2000

There's a clear difference between groups relative to the age structure.  Blue up there represents the Anglo population, the red represents the Hispanic population.  Go to 65 plus and what you see is that about 70 percent of the population is Anglo.  You can see the ‑‑ I mean, yes.  Now go to the other age spectrum.  What do you see?  Now, this does not show African-Americans, Asians or others, but when you get to the less than five what do you see?  You see about 40 percent Anglo, about 44 percent Hispanic, meaning the other percentages are African-American, Asian and other.

When you look to the future what do you see?  If anyone who wonders if the future of Texas is tied to its Hispanic population you need to look at these data very carefully because the answer is clear, at least in a demographic sense, that is the case.

But why do we care about these dull demographic factors, anyway?  Why do we care about the age structure?  Why do we care about the change in racial and ethnic composition?  We care because due to a variety of historical, discriminatory and other factors these demographic characteristics are tied to the socioeconomic characteristics of our population, they're tied to the resources people have to buy goods and services, including energy-related resources in the private sector and they're tied to the resources of people have to pay taxes in the public sector.

33-median household income by age 1999

What do you see about these relationships?  Well, this is a chart that I find very, very, very depressing because it's a chart that shows for the U.S. ‑ and we'll see that it's the same for Texas ‑ that all other things being the same, we make as much money as we're going to make when we're middle aged, we make less money when we're younger and when we're older.  I find this a very depressing slide because it indicates that I've already made as much money as I'm ever going to make.

35-tx median household income by age 1999

You'll see that this chart is everywhere and always the same.  Similarly, if you look at race and ethnicity what you see is nationally the African-American, Hispanic populations make somewhere between 55 and 70 percent of what the population of Anglos does in the United States.  If you look at Texas what do you see?  Same pattern, you can see that income is the highest in those middle-age age groups.  And you can see the differences, as well, that exist in income by race ethnicity.

37-education attained tx by ethnicity

Also important for Texas is this factor.  Many of you are from the education sector.  The fact is that in 2000 in Texas over 50 percent of adult Hispanics had less than a high school level of education.  So the challenges are great.

Well, let's talk about the future.  I want to spend a few minutes talking about the U.S. for a couple of reasons.  One is you can see that we project that the country is going to grow and grow substantially. This is a more rapid projection than we had in our previous set.  And the reason is, growth has been greater than anticipated.

40-projected us population 2000-2050

You can see that growth, however, is clearly greatest in our Hispanic populations.  This, in fact, is the numerical change in population.  You can see we're expecting about 157 million increase and 97 million of that we expect to be due to the Hispanic population. Well, we now project that by 2042 non-Hispanic whites will be less than half of the U.S. population.  And, in fact, by 2023 if you take children under 18, over 50 percent of that group will be members of what we now refer to as minority groups.  That is, they will not be non-Hispanic whites.

42-projected change us population 2000-2050

This here simply shows you in percentage growth terms how different we expect those to be.  Look over here at non-Hispanic whites, 3.9 percent over basically the next 50 years.  So we're seeing a tremendous diversification of the population.  Overall, of the net change in population between 2000 and 2050 we expect 62 percent of it nationwide to come about as a result of the Hispanic population. I won't go into this, but to simply show the tremendous differences in the age structure of Anglos and Hispanics and African-Americans, et cetera, with the biggest differences being between a very young Hispanic population and an older Anglo population.

49-projection us population 2050

These percentages go across this screen and notice that by 2050 in the child categories not only is the combination of all the other non-Anglo groups greater than 50 percent, you can also see the number of kids, the percentage of kids, that will be Hispanic in the country will be greater than the percentage of non-Hispanic white kids. We're seeing dramatic changes all the way across.

Let's talk about Texas for a few minutes.  Texas is projected to grow very rapidly.  We're projecting about a 55 percent rate of growth - these are from my former unit at UTSA ‑ and you can see that we expect those trends to occur: growth of over 100 percent in just 2000 to 2040. You begin to see dramatic changes.  Did you know that by 2004 we were already less than half Anglo in Texas.?  By 2040 basically we'll be somewhere between a quarter and a third Anglo, about 8 to 10 percent African-American, somewhere between about 52 and 59 percent Hispanic with the remainder consisting of members of other racial and ethnic groups, primarily Asian.

62-tx counties 2000 anglo projected 2040

How much will we change?  Let's look at the left-hand top chart and the right-hand bottom chart.  The blue counties are the counties in which over 50 percent of the population in 2000 was non-Hispanic white.  That same pattern on the bottom right is what we expect under one of the projections by 2040.  Texas will be increasingly a minority state. We see the same kind of patterns in age structure. By 2040, on the bottom right you see 20 percent of our population will be 65 years of age or older in Texas.

64-percent 65 older tx 2000

This is 2000.  There were 43 counties in Texas that had 20 percent or more of their population that was 65-plus.  I want you to note the dark green and blue here.  Now I want you to look at those same two colors for 2040.  If you think your area is not going to have an older population ‑ and we know that older population is going to be primarily or disproportionately Anglo ‑ you will see that there's not going to be very many exceptions to that on this map.

The bottom scenario, the scenario that we last predicted, suggests that from 2000 to 2040 there would not only be a proportional decline but there would be an absolute decline in Texas Anglo population from 2000 to 2040.

Let me conclude with a little bit about what I think are very important implications of this.  Many of you know that we did some work, called the Texas Challenge, in which we looked at the socioeconomic implications of demographic change in the absence through education and other factors of socioeconomic change.

65-percent 65 older tx projected 2040

The bottom scenario, the scenario that we last predicted, suggests that from 2000 to 2040 there would not only be a proportional decline but there would be an absolute decline in Texas Anglo population from 2000 to 2040.

Let me conclude with a little bit about what I think are very important implications of this.  Many of you know that we did some work, called the Texas Challenge, in which we looked at the socioeconomic implications of demographic change in the absence through education and other factors of socioeconomic change.

69-projected households poverty by family type 2000  2040

 

What would it mean for Texas to have this population growth, but not change the differentials that exist between racial and ethnic groups and other groups?  Well, among the things we saw was a substantial decline in the income of the state, about $6,500.  We see an increase in the number of families in poverty.  The red is what we expect in the future versus what was there in 2000 in the blue.  We would see a labor force in Texas that, in fact, in 2040 would be less well educated than it is today.  We would begin to see an increasing amount of population, of households, of labor force, of elementary and secondary and college education students that would be from non-Anglo populations.

The same thing would be true for household income and for consumer expenditures.  Our economy will become increasingly dependant on non-Anglo populations and, in fact, tax revenues will, as well.  This slide, which is the same everywhere, shows that education pays.

75-tx  us household income by education 2000

Now, I am very hesitant to show this particular slide to the school teachers of Texas because it shows the average person with a college degree in Texas in 2000 made about $80,000.  Some of our school teachers think there must be a mistake in their withholding taxes when they look at their salaries compared to that.

What happens if we change our education and close the gaps in educational attainment between minority and majority populations in Texas?  Compare the second blue column to the fourth blue column and you see some of the difference for simply part of our population, which shows that we could, if we increased the education or closed the educational attainment levels, increase the aggregate household income by over $300 billion per year.  We could close the gaps relative to consumer expenditures by over $200 billion per year.  We can increase state tax revenues about $22 billion per year.

Let me close then with a few slides on the 2010 census.  We are starting activities right now and next year we will begin extensive activities to complete the 2010 census.  Why are the censuses important?  Well, most of you know that it is in a very real sense the basis of our representative democracy.  Article 1, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution requires that we do a census every ten years for a basis for the apportionment of states. That's what this process is about. In addition, $300 billion per year, $3 trillion a decade, of federal funds are distributed to states and local areas on the basis of census data.  Getting counted becomes very important in terms of getting your share.  It's very critical for all forms of planning, economic development, energy development.

This census is going to be a very difficult one.  The last census took place in a period of economic growth and expansion.  This one is likely not to be quite as rapid in terms of economic expansion.  We have a very contentious immigration debate which is important to use because the Constitution requires that we count everyone residing in the United States, apart from their status as citizens or non-citizens.

We've had a bunch of anomalies in terms of disasters - like Katrina and Ike ‑ which are difficult for us because it means counting people is more difficult.  We've got a foreclosure crisis that is making it very difficult to know in some cases whether people actually live in those housing units or not.  We find that some people get evicted multiple times when they're foreclosed on simply because when they're evicted they have no place else to go and they come back to that unit in order to maintain themselves.

So what can you do?  You can help us a number of ways.  You can let people know that it's safe to respond to the census, that we do not share our data with other agencies.  You can work with local groups that exist, I know there's one in San Antonio, there's one in Houston, one in Dallas and other parts. Most importantly you can help us in maintaining the confidence and the cooperation of the American people.

I want to thank you for your time.  I want to again request your help, your assistance as we do the 2010 census.  More importantly, I think, for Texas as we look at these population changes, I hope that we can all pull together and change the socioeconomic impacts of those demographics with concerted efforts in education and other places so that the future of Texas can not only be one with a larger population, but a more prosperous population.  Thank you.


speaker  mem murdock Speaker and member Steve Murdock, Director United States Census Bureau. Photo by member John Gullett.