Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here and have a chance to talk to you about something that’s a very dear topic to me. I call it the
Now, like some of my colleagues—not really this group, this group is pretty restrained—but like some of my other demographic colleagues I may get just a little bit preachy during this discussion. Now, if I do, I will do so because some of you probably know that demography is a divine calling. We know it is because there’s a Book of Numbers in the Bible, and it’s all about censuses.
What I want to do is talk about some major demographic trends that I argue are so important that if we do not understand them for
What I want to do relative to each of these is to give you a little history and then talk about why they are important—why should you care about these demographic trends anyway? You are not, after all, a bunch of pointed-head, ivory-tower academic demographers. You people do things in the real world, so why should you care about these factors? And then we will discuss the future and some of the work we have done examining some of the implications of these particular factors.
Let us start off by looking at population growth. Here is a chart that shows that in every decade since
When you look at trends in
Really the part that is important in this chart is this very bottom line. Populations grow by one of two mechanisms: natural increase, which is the excess of births over deaths, and through migration. And migration can be immigration from other countries or it can be domestic migration, migration from other states. One important thing in this bottom line is that 58 percent of all Texas population growth in the 1990s—and this is not atypical for Texas—has been as a result of natural increase, the excess of births over deaths.
So to put it in another way, if nothing happens to cause immigration or migration to
Well, how phenomenal is that rate of natural increase? Well, if
The second thing that’s important here is to note that we had about 715,000 immigrants. That is a relatively large number of immigrants. But often I am asked whether we are a lot like
The other factor that is different is this third factor. We had 571,000 persons who came to
If you look at our growth, it has been such that from 1990 to 1999 we increased our population by three million persons. To put that in perspective, that is roughly equivalent to having added another city of
Our growth is not everywhere, however. If you look at
The second area is down through what I refer to as the central corridor of
Our growth in fact is such that one of the things we need to recognize in
This chart shows population change, with the darker shading showing faster growth, you see a crescent of rapid population growth in East and
One of the things to recognize is although most parts of Texas have increased—about 190 of Texas’s 254 counties increased in the 1990s—that growth is yet quite concentrated. For example, if you take natural increase, basically one of every three people born in
If you look at domestic migration—now, this is that high-tech migration that we often hear a lot about—80 percent of all the people who came to Texas from other states went to just five counties: Collin County and Denton County in the Dallas area, Ft. Bend and Montgomery in the Houston area, and Williamson County in the Austin area. And if you look at immigration in terms of destinations, 50 percent of all of our immigrants go to just three counties:
Let us turn to aging. One of the things that John pointed out is the fact that we are aging as a population, and this is true in
But what’s important about our aging both in the country and in
In 1950 the median age in
Why are we aging? John pointed this out very well. We are aging because of an infamous group of people called the baby boomers, those people born between 1946 and 1964. They are about 30 percent of the
If you look at the 1980s, this group in this chart was the baby boomers, and they have been the fastest-growing group again this decade. And if you do not believe they are an important group of people, if you travel quite a bit, like many of you do, one of the things you will probably find, like I have found, is that every major media market in
Now, personally I refer to those as classics, but why are they playing that music—because they love us? No, because they love our money, and the important thing about this group of people is to know that yes, in the long run their aging leads to the kind of issues we have talked about on social security and other factors. But it is also important to remember that their immediate effect is to make us a middle-aged society.
It is probably more appropriate to refer to us between now and about 2020 or 2030 as a middle-aged society than it is an elderly society, and when you begin to look at that group of people, that means that many of the factors we are talking about between now and then are going to involve middle-age issues.
The second factor is that there is a clear relationship in
Another factor that may be important for
About 2 or 3 percent are in the “Other” category, which, as we define it, consists primarily of Asians, although it also includes American Indians and others.
If you want to get an idea of why ethnic and minority issues are so important to Texans, let me just show you where
Why are these differences so important demographically? If you look at the Anglo or non-Hispanic White population, in the ‘80s it increased by 10 percent; the Black population increased 17 percent; the Hispanic population, 45 percent; the “Other” population, 78 percent. Now, notice that that 78 percent is on a relatively small base, but if you look at net population change, what is interesting here is that one out of every two net additions to
If you think the 1980s was a long time ago, let me show you the 1990s. The 1990s followed a similar pattern. Although these numbers are smaller because they are for eight years and not for ten years, you can see that the relative magnitude of growth is the same. And in fact when you look at net change, what is interesting is whereas 49 percent of the net population increase in
If you add all non-Anglo populations together, non-Anglos accounted for 66 percent of the net population growth in
But what are some of the implications of these demographic changes? Why should you care about these dull old demographic factors anyway? I argue that for a variety of historical, discriminatory, and other reasons, these demographic characteristics are tied to socioeconomic characteristics, so knowing these linkages and understanding how they may affect our population becomes not only a demographic issue but a social and economic issue.
Here is a chart that I find very, very depressing, because it is a chart that shows that all other things being the same, we make as much money as we are going to make when we are middle-aged, and we make less money when we are younger and when we are older. This means I am making as much money as I am ever going to make, and that is indeed depressing.
The same thing is true for societies. If they are concentrated in younger or older ages, all other things being the same, they are poorer than if they are concentrated in middle ages.
Unfortunately what you find, depending upon the time and the place, is that African American and Hispanic incomes are between 55 and 75 percent of the incomes of Anglos. I also want to point out that in 1990, 55 percent of adult Hispanics in
This has had a great deal of personal meaning to me. I have been at Texas A&M—well, almost forever. I am in my 24th year—and that does not seem like so long to me, but I can tell you when you go in front of a group of 18-year-olds and they say, “How long have you been here?” and you say, “Twenty-four years,” you look at those faces and you know they are thinking, “My God, this man has been here longer than I’ve been alive. How old must he be?”
Well, one of the things that has bothered me all the time I have been there is that every president we have had has been smarter than I am, and I could never figure out why. I asked my colleagues; I didn’t like their answers. I asked my family; I really didn’t like their answers. But then I found this chart. It shows SAT scores, and I can tell you it would not matter whether we had such a chart for
What you would see is that as your income goes up, whether we are talking about the verbal or the math score, so your score goes up. This means that all of those presidents have been smarter than I am because they have made more money than I have. It also means that all we need to do if we want to make Texans smarter is make them richer.
Well, where was
In terms of the percentage of our population made up of high school graduates, we ranked 39th in the 1980s—and if these estimates are correct—we now rank 45th in the country. We continue to rank 23rd among all the states in terms of the percentage of our adult population made up of college graduates.
So where are we going? We project
What may be most critical relative to some of the factors we talk about is that we project by 2008—and I now believe it will be before 2005—Texas will be less than half Anglo in terms of its total population and that by 2030 it will be about 36 percent Anglo, about 10 percent African American, about 46 percent Hispanic, and about 8 percent will be members of other racial and ethnic groups.
We will also get older. By 2030 about 18 percent, about one in every six Texans, will be 65 years of age or older. But there is something else here that is important to know. Note that in that period of time, about 25 percent of Anglos will be 65-plus, but less than 12 percent of Hispanics will be 65-plus.
One time when I gave this presentation, a gentleman said, “Aren’t you saying we are going to have a group of old Anglos being taken care of by a large group of young minorities?” That is absolutely correct as you begin to look at the population dynamics in
What are some of the implications of these patterns? A few years ago, we completed an analysis for the Texas Legislative Council (which is one of two groups that directly serve the Legislature of Texas) of the implications of these demographic trends for
The population changes from about 61 percent of our population being Anglo to about 37 percent; a similar proportional change is shown for households. The labor force goes from about two-thirds Anglo in 1990 to two-thirds minority by 2030.
By 2030, one of every ten kids in
By 2030 about 60 percent of all kids in Texas colleges and universities will be minority population members, and—very important for the private sector—by 2030 half the household income would come from a household that had a minority population head as well as about half of all the consumer expenditures. Somewhat over 50 percent, in fact, of all consumer expenditures would come from households that have a minority population head.
What are some of the other implications of this? If we do not change the socioeconomic differentials that exist in
We took our figures and looked at what it meant in terms of household change, for the college age population. What we found is that if we do not change the socioeconomic differentials in
Well, let me briefly summarize, because I must be about out of time. What do these three factors mean, and what are some of their implications? First of all in regard to population change, under almost any scenario I can see,
All other things being the same, we are increasing our population about 200,000 persons a year just as a result of natural increase. That growth will not be everywhere. It will be different from area to area, and planning for long-term growth particularly as we look at environmental issues will become increasingly important.
What about the aging of the population? There are two or three things about this that I would like to comment on very quickly.
One of these is that in the long run we have some very difficult decisions to make about the elderly. Lester Thurow, in a book called The Future of Capitalism, frankly suggests that we will not be able to afford to support the baby boomers when they are elderly in the manner to which their parents have become accustomed. The reality of it is that the resource allocation picture is likely to have to change between the young and the old, depending on what we want to do relative to our future.
There’s a second thing about the aging that we need to recognize, however. If we look at the relationship between middle aging and income, the fact that all other things being the same we make as much money as we are going to make when we are middle-aged and we have less money when we were younger and when we were older suggests that if we are going to fix the things that need to be fixed in Texas, we had better do it now. It will not be easier when one in six Texans is 65 years of age or older and on some form of fixed income.
And there’s a third factor. I bring this up with a lot of hesitation because it is controversial, but I think we must talk about it. We must discuss it openly.
I do a lot of discussions, a lot of presentations to school officials, and recently I’ve had things happen that have bothered me in conversations with a couple of superintendents who have come up to me and said, “You know the chart that you showed that indicated that the minority population is primarily young and the Anglo population is older?” And I say, “Yes.” And one of these gentlemen said, “Let me tell you about my school bond issue that failed.”
And he said, “You know, when I checked to see the areas where it failed, I found it failed in areas of my district that were primarily residence areas for Anglos, and older Anglos particularly.” And in one of these areas one superintendent said, “One of these gentlemen actually said to me, ‘Look. I am not ready to raise my taxes to educate—quote—those people’s kids.’” There’s a danger for
If I as an aging Anglo do not understand that when I am retired, the quality of roads that I will have, the quality of police services and fire services will depend upon how well the working age population is doing—and that working age population will be primarily minority. If I forget that, it will be to my own detriment. We must recognize that our fates are interrelated.
Finally, let me comment on the most important factor,
Because I know demographically that 87 percent of the net additions to our population between now and 2030 are likely to be minority. I know that by 2030 two of every three of our workers, seven of every ten students in our elementary and secondary schools, six of every ten kids in colleges, and over half of our consumer expenditures are going to come from households that have a minority population head. And if we do not change the socioeconomic differentials that are out there,
The reality of it is that the future of