Thank you. It’s a pleasure to be here and an honor to be considered among these very distinguished scholars here today.
My job is to bring the discussion down to a more local level, to a Texas level, but before I do that, I want to put out a warning that when you have this many demographers together you need to be very careful about believing us too much.
That is, I remember that my very first book on population projections had a very important footnote at the bottom of the first page that said that a wise demographer once said that no demographer should ever make a projection for a period that he or she did not expect to exceed his or her own lifetime, meaning he or she did not have to be around to answer for the accuracy of the projections that had been made.
The second thing I think you should be aware of is that when you look at projections, they are generally less accurate for smaller areas, which means literally that you should probably believe Dr. Lutz and Professor Rostow a great deal, John somewhat, and me hardly at all, because I want to talk about a single state, Texas.
I believe that the world population patterns have both direct and exemplary, if you will, implications for
So I think it is important to realize that this suggests to some of us that the population of
Well, there are other implications beyond enhancing the state’s level of growth, and that is if you look at the characteristics of immigrants to the
And if you look at Texas, Texas has the second largest Hispanic population and the fourth largest Asian population, which are the major immigrant groups immigrating to the United States. I think all the major patterns that we see in terms of the world will have implications for continued population growth and diversity in
The other factor that they bear on is that we are a relatively young state with a relatively young population, and immigrants tend to be young adults. They tend to be young adults with children, and this will likely maintain a somewhat younger profile for
Another example of the effect of world demographic change is that if you look at the world in terms of developing and developed countries—a term that I don’t like very much but that we continue to use in the demographic literature—what you see is one set of countries, developed countries that are primarily of European heritage in one form or another whose problems are increasingly going to be those of the aged.
You see another set of countries, the developing countries, whose racial and ethnic profiles are different from the first set. It includes Asian countries, Latin American countries, African countries, and for these countries the challenge is one of education, of creating educational and employment opportunities as they go forward in trying to develop their societies.
What do the world’s demographic developments suggest for
So in a kind of final sense, what these national or international patterns suggest to me for
Third, he talks about the e of equity and the issue of increasing the equity among Texans as we go forward in time. And fourth, he talks about something that our next session is going to talk a great deal about, and that is environmental quality and the need to ensure environmental quality in
Well, we could talk a lot more than this. I will just sum up with one other factor. It’s interesting as we look at world patterns that are taking place to note that in many ways, as we look at the demographic patterns that we will spend more time looking at this afternoon, that what is happening to Texas’s population is that we are internationalizing our population in the same way that our economy is being internationalized.
I think it’s important to recognize that you can take that analogy a little bit farther. I’m often asked, “Aren’t we going to have an unusual population in 2030 or 2050?” It is not the population of